Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

B. T. Anderson, B. R. Lintner, B. Langenbrunner, J. D. Neelin, E. Hawkins and J. Syktus

Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1190-1196. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062593. Paper (2.7 MB).

© Copyright 2015 by the American Geophysical Union.

Abstract. Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large-scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region-specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

Citation:
Anderson, B. T., B. R. Lintner, B. Langenbrunner, J. D. Neelin, E. Hawkins and J. Syktus, 2015: Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1190-1196. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062593.

Acknowledgments. B.T.A. acknowledges support of Department of Energy grant DE-SC0004975. B.R.L. acknowledges support of National Science Foundation grant NSF-AGS-1312865. E.H. is funded by the UK National Environment Research Council. J.D.N. and B.L. acknowledge support of NSF AGS-1102838, NOAA NA11OAR4310099, and NOAA NA14OAR4310274. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table S1 in the supporting information) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and leads development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. To obtain model simulations of historical and projected temperatures from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble used in this study, please see http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/esgf-web-fe/.

An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2015) American Geophysical Union. To view the published open abstract, go to AGU Journal Link.