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NASA Grant # NNG06GA66G in response to NRA-04-OES-02 "Oceans and Ice".
M. Ghil, P.I., and D. Kondrashov (UCLA),
S. Kravtsov (U. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee), I. Kamenkovich (U. of Miami, formerly U. of
Washington, Seattle),
G. Vecchi (GFDL, Princeton), and E. Harrison (PMEL, NOAA)
We propose to study ocean–atmosphere interactions over the Southern Ocean. Our objective
is to digest NASA’s satellite measurements of sea-surface temperature and sea-level wind so
as to put their information content to best use. The approach we propose is to develop a
hierarchy of data-based, stochastically forced models. These models will allow us to analyze
the dynamics of air–sea coupling in the region and quantify climate predictability there. Our
statistical methodology will be applied to diagnose the output of a state-of-the-art general
circulation model (GCM), thus complementing the use of the satellite data.
The proposed approach is ideally suited for the analysis of incomplete climate data and
provides novel and efficient means of estimating the missing values in the data sets. Obtaining
such a continuous data set is a central aspect of the proposed work. The new feature of our
proposal is to study a hierarchy of models that describe interactions among the components of
the climate-state vector. The performance of the models is measured by their ability to forecast
the observed anomalies. We can thus identify the interactions that lead to useful forecast skill.
This analysis will be combined with one that is based on the results from an integration
of NCAR’s Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The behavior of the coupled climate
system in the Southern Ocean is poorly known at present, thus complicating interpretation of
GCM results. Our work will contribute to the solution of this problem by identifying robust
modes of variability via quantitative comparison of the observed climate evolution with that
of the coupled GCM. In addition, we will use our stochastic models as efficient substitutes
for a numerically demanding atmospheric component of the coupled model to address decadal
climate variability.
The intellectual merit of this proposal is to develop novel data analysis techniques and to
analyze the dynamics of the air–sea interaction in the Southern Ocean. The broader impacts
of our work lie in developing a scientific partnership between three leading institutions (UCLA,
UW, and PMEL) in this field, broadly disseminating the results of our work by means of
publications and presentations at national and international meetings, making our new data
products and analysis tools available to other researchers, and addressing a problem of crucial
societal importance in climate prediction.
Kravtsov, S., D. Kondrashov, I. Kamenkovich, and M. Ghil (2009) (PDF file)
