Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Abstract. A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3 mm/day, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive "dangerous ranges". The low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.

Citation:
Bernstein, D. N. and J. D. Neelin, 2016: Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters. Geophys. Res. Lett.,43, doi:10.1002/2016GL069022.