The NINO-34 ensemble forecast of EMR model is based on data from January 1950 through February 2019 (blue), and ensemble mean (red) predicts weak El-Niño conditions through summer 2019. The error bars (black) correspond to one standard deviation of the ensemble plume. You can also check a multi-model plume of Nino-34 forecasts from different statistical and dynamical models maintained by IRI, and compare predictions for the past 22 months, including also the UCLA-TCD model. IRI analysis of real-time 2002-2011 forecast skill of IRI multi-model plume of Nino-34 forecasts shows that UCLA-TCD model is highly competitive.
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